000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190833
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
200 AM MST Mon Oct 19 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Trudy began rapidly weakening about 
12 hours ago, and during these past 12 hours, most of the deep 
convection has dissipated.  However, there are still small areas of 
deep convection in the eastern semicircle of the tropical storm.  A 
19/0359 UTC ASCAT-C pass had a peak wind retrieval of 45 kt, and the 
latest DPRINT, DMINT and AiDT estimates have fallen to the 46-55 kt 
range.  The initial intensity was lowered to 55 kt at 06Z, with a 
09Z advisory intensity of 50 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate is westward, or 280/5 kt.  A slow motion 
between west-southwest and west is expected over the next 12-24 h as 
Trudy is steered by low- to mid-level ridging to its north.  On 
Tuesday, a deep-layer trough and associated cold front will approach 
the waters west of Baja California, causing Trudy to turn 
northwestward.  The latest NHC track forecast has once again been 
adjusted to the south of the previous official forecast, and lies in 
between the previous forecast and the latest Google DeepMind 
Ensemble Mean.
 
The dry environment has taken its toll on Trudy, and the mid-level 
air is forecast to become even drier with time over the next day or 
so, along with a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly 
vertical wind shear.  Trudy is expected to continue to rapidly 
weaken and become post-tropical within the next 24 h, although it 
could become post-tropical sooner than forecast.  The NHC intensity 
forecast was lowered compared to the previous forecast due to the 
weaker initial intensity and latest model guidance.  This forecast 
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Trudy's remnant low 
is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night.
 
Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern 
Mexico and west-central Mexico through today, causing 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at the beaches.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 19.7N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.6N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.6N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/1800Z 19.8N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z 20.2N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1800Z 20.7N 110.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen