041 
WTPZ41 KNHC 200833
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
 
Although modest northerly vertical wind shear continues to impart a 
slight tilt to the vortex, a well-established upper-level outflow 
over the southern semicircle has allowed the convective organization 
to improve over the past few hours. As a result, the low-level 
circulation center remains located near the northern edge of the 
deepest convection, which was confirmed by a recent scatterometer 
pass. The scatterometer data also sampled peak surface winds of 
around 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, which is 
consistent with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. 
Based on the slightly improved satellite presentation and the recent 
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate is toward the west-northwest, or 290/10 
kt. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward in the 
wake of Elida, steering Fausto on a west-northwestward track during 
the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens and expands 
westward, the cyclone is expected to gradually slow and bend 
slightly more westward through Wednesday. Thereafter, Fausto should 
resume a west-northwestward motion while accelerating later in the 
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory and lies near the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and 
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Although modest northerly shear is likely contributing to Fausto's 
asymmetric structure, the overall environment remains conducive for 
strengthening, with warm sea surface temperatures, deep moisture, 
and improving upper-level conditions. Steady strengthening is 
expected today, followed by a period of rapid intensification 
forecast over the next couple of days, with Fausto forecast to 
become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The cyclone is expected 
to reach its peak intensity in about 60 hours or around midweek. 
Thereafter, guidance suggest that decreasing upper-level divergence 
and a somewhat drier mid-level environment should induce a gradual 
weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the 
middle of the guidance envelope through about 60 h, then lies near 
the upper end of the guidance envelope thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 12.9N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)