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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170237
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020


Karina has lacked deep convection for sufficiently long to be
deemed a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory.
Satellite imagery shows a well-developed low cloud swirl that is
estimated to be producing winds to 30 kt, primarily based on an
earlier ASCAT pass. Karina is moving northwestward at 8 mph, and
although a turn toward the west is expected the next day or so, it
will remain over 23C waters. This will prevent the redevelopment of
significant convection, and the cyclone is expected to gradually
spin down until it becomes a trough and dissipates in a couple days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 23.3N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard