000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260236
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has 
changed little during the past several hours. Despite the dry 
surrounding environment and the occasional dry air intrusion, the 
cyclone has maintained its convective structure with a symmetric 
eyewall and well-established outflow. The ragged eye, however, has 
recently become obscured with clouds. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB is T5.0/90 kt, while objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 80 to around 95 kt. 
Based on the satellite presentation and a blend of the available 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 85 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/11 kt, and this general 
motion is expected to continue through the next several days as a 
strong subtropical ridge remains positioned north of the cyclone. 
The latest track guidance has come into better agreement and remains 
tightly clustered through the middle portion of next week as the 
system passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast has 
again been nudged slightly northward toward the multi-model 
consensus (HCCA) between 60-96 h. 
 
Fausto is moving into a drier mid-level environment over marginal 
sea-surface temperatures, and southwesterly vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase after 36 h while the system moves over the 
central Pacific basin. Simulated satellite imagery depicts a similar 
evolution, maintaining a well-defined cyclone into tomorrow before 
gradually eroding the convective structure Sunday night into early 
next week. By the time Fausto moves into the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm 
with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the 
low-level center and the strongest winds confined to the northern 
side of the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is little 
changed from the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of 
the guidance envelope.
 
Based on the predicted sheared nature of the storm, the risk of
sustained tropical-force-winds on land should be low as long as the
forecast track stays north of the islands. Interests in Hawaii
should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands early next week. Although confidence is increasing 
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain offshore 
north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to 
monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to
begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the
state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and
continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves
into the area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 19.5N 138.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 19.8N 140.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 20.2N 143.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.7N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 21.3N 148.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 21.8N 150.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 22.4N 153.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 23.5N 157.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 24.5N 162.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce