000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250834
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has 
changed little during the past several hours. However, intermittent 
intrusions of mid-level dry air have begun to erode the deep 
convection over the northwestern quadrant and eyewall. Despite these 
fluctuations, Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined eye and 
well-established upper-level outflow. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 75 to 90 kt. Based on 
the recent satellite trends and a blend of the available intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. A strong subtropical ridge 
is forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto through the 
forecast period, steering the cyclone generally westward during the 
next several days. The latest track guidance remains tightly 
clustered through about 96 h, with somewhat greater spread 
developing thereafter as the system passes just north of the main 
Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous 
advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus (HCCA) to the 
north and the ECMWF to the south. Although the current forecast 
brings Fausto just north of the Hawaiian Islands during the Tuesday 
through Wednesday time frame, the islands remain well within the 
typical day 4-5 track error envelope, and interests across the state 
should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane.
 
A gradual weakening trend appears to have begun as intermittent 
intrusions of mid-level dry air begin to erode Fausto's convective 
structure. However, the hurricane is expected to remain well 
organized through much of Saturday while moving over warm waters. 
Thereafter, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures, a drier 
surrounding environment, and increasing westerly vertical wind shear 
by early next week should result in continued weakening. Simulated 
satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, maintaining a 
well-defined cyclone through Saturday before gradually eroding the 
convective structure late this weekend into early next week. By the 
time Fausto approaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a 
weakening tropical storm with the deepest convection becoming 
increasingly displaced from the low-level center. The NHC intensity 
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and remains 
near the upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands early next week, uncertainty remains regarding its
exact track and intensity. The current forecast brings the center
just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in
a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests
across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to
begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the
state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and
continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves
into the area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 18.8N 135.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 19.1N 136.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 19.5N 139.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 19.9N 141.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 20.2N 144.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 20.6N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 21.0N 149.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N 155.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 22.9N 159.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce