Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050833 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 05 2026 Amanda's center became embedded beneath a burst of deep convection a few hours ago, although water vapor imagery still shows southeasterly shear impinging on the circulation underneath the upper-level outflow. A pair of ASCAT passes between 0500 and 0600 UTC showed peak winds of 39-42 kt, and Amanda's initial intensity therefore remains 40 kt. The biggest limiting factors of Amanda's future intensity are likely to be a gradually drier air mass and a more convergent upper-level environment in about 48 hours. As a result, the bursts of convection are likely to become smaller and smaller, with Amanda gradually weakening and possibly becoming a remnant low in about 60 hours. The official forecast follows the trend shown by the HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. A west-northwestward motion (290/8 kt) continues, but sprawling low- to mid-level high pressure to Amanda's northwest should cause the storm to turn westward later today and then southwestward by Saturday. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted southward after 36 hours, trending toward the HCCA and GDMI guidance, which lies on the southern side of the envelope. The remnant low is likely to turn back toward the west by days 3-5 while being steered by the low-level trade winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 13.2N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 12.8N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 12.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 11.7N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 11.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 11.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 10.9N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg