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Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has 
changed little during the past several hours. Despite the dry 
surrounding environment, the cyclone has maintained its convective 
structure with the low-level circulation now embedded in a central 
dense overcast with cloud top temperatures around -75 C. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from T4.0/64 kt from 
JTWC to T4.5/77 kt from HFO, which generally align with the latest 
DMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on the 
satellite presentation and these intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is held at 75 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fausto later this evening. The 
reconnaissance data should help further improve confidence in 
subsequent track and intensity forecasts.

The initial motion estimate is 280/13 kt. The overall track forecast 
philosophy remains unchanged, with a low- to mid-level subtropical 
ridge forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto during the next 
several days. This steering pattern should keep the hurricane moving 
generally west to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed 
through the middle of the week. As Fausto steadily weakens and 
becomes increasingly shallow, it should become more influenced by 
the low-level steering flow. This could result in subtle track 
deviations during the next couple of days. The NHC guidance is 
essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and lies near the 
Google DeepMind ensemble mean. 

Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly less 
favorable for Fausto during the next couple of days as the hurricane 
moves into a drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface 
temperatures. Additionally, southwesterly vertical wind shear is 
forecast to steadily increase during the next few days. Simulated 
satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, with the convective 
structure gradually eroding over the next day or so. By the time 
Fausto moves north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a 
weakening tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming 
increasingly displaced from the low-level center and the strongest 
winds confined to the northern side of the circulation. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory 
and remains near the middle to upper portion of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across the state along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 20.1N 143.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 20.5N 145.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 21.0N 148.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 21.7N 151.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 22.1N 153.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 22.6N 155.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 23.0N 158.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 24.1N 163.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce
 
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