000
WTPZ41 KNHC 061502
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
500 AM HST Sat Jun 06 2026
 
This morning's satellite presentation consists of a sheared
tropical cyclone with a recent cold cloud top (-77C) burst of deep
convection just west of Amanda's surface center.  A 0902 UTC
Oceansat-3 scatterometer overpass revealed only a couple of 35 kt 
winds in the northwest quadrant with winds below tropical storm 
force in the eastern portion of the cyclone.  Accordingly, the wind 
radii have been adjusted, and the initial intensity is held at 
35 kt for this advisory.  Although the oceanic surface temperatures 
are warm (27-28C), undercutting easterly shear, a surrounding 
dry/stable air mass, and upper-level confluent flow should inhibit 
any chance of strengthening through the period.  Subsequently, 
Global model-simulated/IR satellite forecasts indicate that Amanda 
will produce intermittent bursts of convection near the surface 
center through early next week; however, the cloud pattern should 
lack organized deep convection.  Therefore, Amanda is predicted to 
degenerate into a vertically shallow remnant low by late Sunday in 
agreement with the deterministic guidance.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be southwest, or 215/4 kt.
Building high pressure north of Amanda should steer the cyclone
toward the southwest and west-southwest through mid-next week.  The 
NHC forecast lies near the GFS and ECMWF simple consensus, the HCCA 
corrected-consensus, and the GDM FNv3 ensemble mean.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 12.5N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 12.2N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 11.6N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 11.2N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 11.0N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/0000Z 10.8N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z 10.6N 138.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z  9.9N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z  9.3N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts