000
WTPZ41 KNHC 062034
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Amanda Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
1100 AM HST Sat Jun 06 2026
 
Since early this morning, deep convection associated with Amanda has
weakened and separated from the low-level center due to east-
southeasterly shear.  This has resulted in the system becoming a
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  A timely 1737 UTC ASCAT-B
overpass revealed a peak wind of 27 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to possibly generous 30 kt.
 
Continued east-southeasterly shear and a dry mid-level environment
are expected to cause gradual weakening over the next several days
despite the system remaining over SSTs of 27-28C.  Those warm
waters will likely result in the system producing intermittent
bursts of convection during the next day or so, but they are likely
to become less and less organized, resulting in Amanda become a
post-tropical remnant low in 36-48 hours.
 
Amanda is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt.  A high pressure
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it southwestward or
west-southwestward through the next several days. The NHC forecast
lies near the latest Google Deep Mind ensemble mean and HCCA 
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 12.3N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 11.9N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 11.4N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 11.1N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z 10.9N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/0600Z 10.7N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z 10.4N 139.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z  9.8N 141.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown