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Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026

Fausto has failed to produce significant convection for the past 12 
to 15 hours, although a small area of pulsing convection has 
persisted in the northeast quadrant over the past several hours. The 
center of Fausto passed a very short distance south of NOAA buoy 
51000 a few hours ago.  The buoy reported a peak 1-min wind of 27 kt 
and a minimum pressure of 1009 mb.  Earlier ASCAT and recon data 
from the 20Z to 00Z time-frame supported winds in the 35 to 37 kt 
range, and showed that these winds were only occurring in the NE 
quadrant between 100-140 n mi from the center.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak numbers are 1.5/25 kt from JTWC and 2.5/35 kt from 
PHFO.  D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT intensity estimates have dropped to 
the 31-32 kt range.  Given that convection has yet to redevelop 
since the time of the aforementioned recon and ASCAT data, it is 
estimated that winds have likely dropped below tropical-storm-force 
by now. Fausto is being downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression at 
this time.
 
Fausto has been moving west-northwestward with an initial motion
estimate of 290/10 kt.  This general motion is expected to continue
for the next couple of days, as the shallow circulation moves with
the low-level trade wind flow to the south of the subtropical ridge.
The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,
and lies near the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) and simple
consensus (TVCN).
 
Fausto has reached a wall of 40-kt westerly vertical wind shear as 
it traverses through mid-level relative humidity values hovering 
near 30 percent.  In these conditions, it will be quite difficult 
for Fausto to redevelop enough convection to stay alive as a 
tropical cyclone.  Therefore, the NHC forecast now shows Fausto 
becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the next 12 h.  Global 
models suggest that the remnant low of Fausto will then open up into 
a trough in about 36 h, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation just 
after that time.  It is possible that Fausto could dissipate sooner 
than forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it passes north of
the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday night. Although the forecast
indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain
north of the islands, interests across the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto is building westward across the Hawaiian
Islands along exposed east-facing shores and will remain dangerous
on Wednesday as Fausto passes north of the islands.  Large surf and
strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed
shores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 23.3N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 23.7N 156.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 24.2N 158.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 24.9N 161.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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