000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060235
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
500 PM HST Fri Jun 05 2026
 
Amanda has produced a modest increase in deep convection during the 
past few hours, with cloud-top temperatures cooling to around -80C. 
However, this renewed burst of convection remains confined primarily 
to the western semicircle, with the low-level circulation center 
located near or beneath the eastern edge of the deep convection. 
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, along with objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, range from 35 to 40 kt. Given the 
recent increase in convection and these estimates, the initial 
intensity is held at 35 kt.

Amanda is moving toward the southwest, or 230/4 kt. A low- to 
mid-level ridge building north of the cyclone should continue to 
steer Amanda generally toward the southwest through the weekend. As 
the system weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it should 
become embedded within the low-level trade wind flow, resulting in a 
continued south-of-west motion during the next several days. The 
latest track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC 
forecast track is little changed from the previous advisory and lies 
near the consensus aids.

Persistent southeasterly shear, increasing dry-air entrainment, and 
increasing upper-level convergence are expected to continue limiting 
convective organization. While simulated satellite imagery from the 
dynamical models suggests occasional bursts of convection will 
persist through the next couple of days, these episodes are unlikely 
to result in any significant organization. As Amanda gradually 
continues southwestward and becomes increasingly shallow, steady 
weakening is expected. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the 
consensus guidance and continues to show Amanda degenerating into a 
post-tropical remnant low on Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 12.9N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 12.7N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 12.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 11.8N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 11.4N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z 11.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z 10.7N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z 10.4N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 10.1N 141.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)