000
WTPZ41 KNHC 051446
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
500 AM HST Fri Jun 05 2026

An AMSR2 satellite pass from earlier this morning showed a 
well-defined center, but persistent southeasterly shear continues to 
impact Amanda as the center remains on the eastern edge of the 
convection. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
range from 35-44 kt and earlier ASCAT data depicted peak winds of 
38-42 kt, so the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

Convection associated with Amanda has weakened over the past several 
hours. Diurnal pulses of convection are expected over the next 
couple of days, which should allow Amanda to maintain tropical 
cyclone status.  However, the storm will encounter drier mid-level 
air and increasing upper-level convergence over the next 36-48 h.  
Therefore, slow weakening is expected due to the increasingly 
hostile environmental conditions, and Amanda is forecast to become 
a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. 

The storm is moving toward the west at around 9 kt. A mid- to 
upper-level ridge northeast of Amanda will support a westward motion 
today, before the storm turns to the southwest on Saturday as 
ridging builds to the northwest. The official NHC forecast has been 
adjusted slightly southward from the previous advisory during the 
first day or so, and lies between the Google DeepMind and various 
consensus aids. The remnant low is likely to turn back toward the 
west by days 3-5 while being steered by the low-level trade winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 13.3N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 13.1N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 12.3N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 11.8N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 11.4N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  08/1200Z 11.1N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z 10.8N 139.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z 10.6N 140.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Brown