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Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is investigating Fausto, 
and has so far found a weakening tropical cyclone. Peak 700 mb 
flight level winds in the northwest quadrant were 70 kt, and the 
minimum central pressure has risen to at least 994 mb. The 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have also 
started to decrease in the past few hours. These observations 
suggest that Fausto is now barely a hurricane, with an initial 
intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. 

Recon fixes indicate that Fausto has tracked a little right of the 
previous forecast track, though its current motion remains 
west-northwestward, at 285/13 kt. The track reasoning is the same as 
the previous advisory, with the hurricane being steered by a low- to 
mid-level ridge north of the system. This synoptic pattern should 
keep Fausto on a steady west-northwest heading over the next several 
days. Some wobbles in this general track could occur as the shear 
increases and the convective structure becomes increasingly 
asymmetric while the overall circulation becomes more vertically 
shallow. The track guidance this cycle trended a bit north, 
partially due to the initial position adjustment. The NHC track was 
nudged a little northward and lies closest to the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean (GDMI). On this track, Fausto should pass north of the 
Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Vertical wind shear over Fausto is already diagnosed between 18-20 
kt by the SHIPS guidance, and is forecast to increase to above 30 kt 
in 24 h and above 40 kt in 48 h. This shear, combined with an 
increasingly dry and stable environment should cause the low-level 
circulation to decouple from the convection as this activity 
becomes increasingly displaced down-shear. Thus, continued weakening 
is anticipated, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Fausto 
weakening below hurricane intensity in 12 h, and below tropical 
storm intensity in 60 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the 
overall intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF suggest the storm may lose organized convection between 
60-72 h, marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low, 
though given the unfavorable conditions, this could occur sooner 
than forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 21.3N 147.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 21.8N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 22.3N 152.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 22.8N 154.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 23.1N 156.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 23.6N 159.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 24.0N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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