000
WTPZ41 KNHC 241435
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2026

Fausto has become a well organized hurricane.  The cloud pattern is 
fairly symmetric, and there is a closed ring of deep convection 
surrounding a roughly 15 n mi diameter eye.  Beyond the inner core, 
the hurricane is maintaining some curved bands, especially east of 
the center, and well established outflow.  The latest satellite 
intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt, and based on a blend of 
that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 90 kt. Fausto's 
wind field is a little smaller than average when compared to other 
hurricanes in similar locations of the Pacific Ocean.
 
The hurricane is moving westward at about 14 kt.  The track forecast 
appears fairly straightforward.  A narrow mid-level ridge is 
expected to remain in place to the north of Fausto during the next 
several days, and that should cause the hurricane to move westward 
to west-northwestward at about the same pace.  The NHC track 
forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies on the 
fast side of the model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA and 
GDMI.  This track takes Fausto near the Hawaiian Islands during the 
early to middle portions of next week.
 
The models are in good agreement that Fausto is likely near its peak 
intensity.  However, it is worth noting that the guidance has 
struggled to capture the trends in Fausto's intensity over the past 
few days.  Nonetheless, decreasing water temperatures and drier air 
should cause the cyclone to gradually lose strength, and an increase 
in westerly vertical wind shear early next week will likely aid in 
that weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the 
middle of the guidance envelope, and shows steady weakening through 
the period.  There is relatively high confidence that Fausto will be 
a tropical storm when it is in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portions of next week,
there is an increasing risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall.
However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude
of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the
progress of this storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 18.6N 131.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 18.7N 133.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 19.0N 135.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 19.4N 137.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 19.8N 140.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 20.1N 142.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 20.3N 145.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 21.0N 151.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 21.6N 157.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi