246 
WTPZ41 KNHC 040232
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Amanda has not apparently strengthened since earlier today.  There 
are a couple of poorly-defined banding features over the northern 
semicircle, and a few cells of deep convection have been 
redeveloping near the center, likely a diurnal fluctuation.  The 
current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt which is roughly in 
agreement with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Hopefully, 
we will get a scatterometer pass over the system overnight to help 
in assessing the strength of the cyclone.

An AMSR2 microwave image and recent visible imagery indicate that 
the storm center is a little north of the previously estimated 
track.  Adjusting the working best track over the past 12 hours 
yields an initial motion estimate of 300/8 kt.  A weak mid-level 
ridge to the northeast of Amanda should result in a continued 
generally west-northwestward track during the next 36-48 hours.  
Later, a narrow ridge is forecast to develop to the west and 
northwest of the cyclone, which should induce a leftward turn and a 
slow southwestward motion in around 3 days.  The official forecast 
is only slightly north of the previous one during the early part of 
the period, and very close to the previous NHC track later on.  
This is a blend of the latest Google DeepMind and corrected 
consensus forecast solutions.

Amanda should remain in an environment marginally conducive for 
strengthening for the next day or two with warm SSTs and moderate 
easterly shear over the system.  However, the cyclone is likely to 
encounter an increasingly dry and more stable air mass in a few 
days which should cause a weakening trend to commence in  the 48 
hour time frame.  The official forecast allows for some 
strengthening through tomorrow, with weakening over the weekend 
resulting in the system degenerating into a remnant low during the 
latter part of the period.  This NHC forecast is on the high side 
of the intensity model guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 11.4N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 12.2N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 13.0N 131.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 13.4N 132.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 13.5N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 12.8N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 12.2N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch