000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181434
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
800 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026

Trudy has changed little in organization during the past few hours. 
The hurricane has a well-defined central dense overcast with cloud 
tops colder than -80C, and there have been occasional attempts at 
eye formation. The various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates have an unusually large spread from 62-102 kt, 
but there has been little change in them since the previous 
advisory. Thus, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt.

The initial motion is still northwestward or 325/7 kt. This motion 
should continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest 
at a slower forward speed as Trudy shears apart vertically and 
becomes steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new 
forecast track is similar to, but a little west of the previous 
track. On the forecast track, the hurricane will move away from 
southwest and west-central Mexico starting this afternoon and then 
move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday.

The hurricane is about to encounter increasing southwesterly shear 
and a drier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity 
guidance forecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening 
beginning just after 12 h, and the intensity forecast follows the 
trend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous 
forecast, showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone by 
60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. And as mentioned 
previously, both of these could occur sooner than currently 
predicted.


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm 
warning area today.
 
2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely
in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas.
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the 
southwest Mexican coast between Colima and Nayarit through today. 
This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern
Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next few days, causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 19.1N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 19.7N 107.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 20.1N 107.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 20.3N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 21.2N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z 21.7N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven