000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022037
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 02 2026

The area of low pressure (90E) that NHC has been monitoring for 
development has showed increased signs of organization today. An 
area of sheared thunderstorm activity is observed to the north of 
the low-level center, along with fragmented curved bands over the 
northern portion of the circulation. Scatterometer wind data 
revealed the system had a closed circulation, and its definition has 
improved in recent passive microwave and visible satellite images. 
Based on these developments, the NHC is initiating advisories on the 
first tropical depression of the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane 
season, with an initial intensity of 25 kt.

The depression is moving slowly westward (280/3 kt), but is expected 
to move a bit faster toward the northwest during the next few days 
along the southwestern side of a steering ridge over the central 
portion of the basin. The track models are in very good agreement 
for this portion of the forecast, and the official NHC prediction 
lies between the simple and corrected-consensus aids. By days 4-5, a 
slowdown is forecast as the system moves underneath the ridge and 
steering currents collapse. There is increased track spread during 
this period, although most models generally show a slow westward or 
southwestward drift, which is reflected in the official forecast.

Warm sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C and strong upper-level 
divergence in a moist environment should allow for some 
strengthening during the next couple of days or so. However, 
easterly shear is forecast to increase by late week, which will 
likely limit the extent of strengthening that occurs. The official 
NHC forecast shows the system reaching tropical storm strength by 
Wednesday, with a peak intensity in good agreement with the HCCA 
consensus aid and the HAFS models. A weakening trend is forecast by 
this weekend as the system encounters a drier and more stable 
mid-level environment over cooler SSTs, and it is possible that the 
system could become devoid of convection by the end of the period.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z  9.4N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z  9.9N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 10.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 11.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 12.6N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 13.7N 133.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 13.7N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 13.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart