000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020843
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Karina's satellite presentation is even a little more impressive 
than it was earlier today.  The hurricane is exhibiting a 
well-defined 25 n mi diameter eye embedded in very deep convection.  
The eye temperature on satellite imagery has warmed to around 16 deg 
C over the past several hours. Using a blend of objective satellite 
estimates, the advisory intensity is set at 125 kt.  This is close 
to the latest DPRINT value from UW-CIMSS.  Karina's cloud pattern is 
quite symmetrical and is typical of an annular hurricane.

Karina continues moving just slightly north of due west, or around 
280/10 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is basically unchanged 
from the previous few advisories.  The flow on the southern side of 
a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge should continue to steer the system 
on a westward to west-northwestward course for the next 3 days or 
so.  Later in the forecast period, a more northwestward track is 
likely due to the influence of a mid-level cyclone to the north of 
Hawaii.  The new official forecast is very similar to the previous 
NHC track and is a blend of the latest ECMWF, HCCA, and Google 
DeepMind predictions.  There is fairly high confidence that Karina 
will pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.

Karina remains over marginally warm waters with low vertical wind 
shear.  Therefore, the hurricane has an opportunity for some 
additional strengthening during the next 12 hours or so.  A gradual 
weakening trend should commence thereafter due to drier air and 
somewhat cooler waters.  However, since Karina appears to be 
an annular hurricane, its weakening during the forecast period is 
likely to be slower than normal.  The official intensity forecast 
is generally above the model guidance owing to the annular nature 
of the system.  Karina is likely to maintain hurricane strength for 
at least the next 72 hours.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 18.5N 131.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 19.9N 137.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.4N 139.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 20.8N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.4N 142.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 22.9N 144.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 25.2N 147.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch