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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission from a few hours 
ago and current satellite-observed trends indicate that the 
tropical cyclone is gradually weakening.  The maximum 700 mb 
flight-level winds from the aircraft were 64 kt over the northwest 
quadrant of the circulation, and the estimated minimum central 
pressure has risen to at least 996 mb.  Based on these observations, 
the system is being downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm for this 
advisory.  Fausto's convective cloud pattern is becoming less 
organized with the banding features starting to lose definition, 
although there are still some very cold cloud tops near the 
estimated center.  Upper-level outflow remains strong over the 
northern portion of the circulation. 

Center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone continues moving 
west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt.  There is little change to the 
track forecast philosophy.  Fausto should continue to be steered on 
a general west-northwestward track by the mid- to low level 
environmental flow for the next several days.  The official 
forecast is quite similar to the latest corrected consensus 
dynamical guidance and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.  This is 
basically an update of the previous NHC forecast.  On this track, 
Fausto should pass north of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into 
Wednesday.

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with a belt of 
strong upper-level winds near the Hawaiian Islands, is likely to 
increase further over Fausto.  Moreover, the cyclone will be 
moving through a very dry air mass, with low- to mid-level relative 
humidities on the order of 35 percent as diagnosed by the SHIPS 
model.  These hostile atmospheric conditions should result in 
continued weakening of Fausto through the forecast period.  The 
official forecast calls for the system to become a post-tropical 
cyclone in 72 hours, but simulated satellite imagery from the 
global models suggest that it could become one even sooner than 
indicated here.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 21.7N 149.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 22.1N 151.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 22.6N 153.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 23.0N 155.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 23.5N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 23.9N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 24.2N 163.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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