000
WTPZ41 KNHC 041440
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 AM PDT Thu Jun 04 2026
 
An AMSR-2 pass from earlier this morning showed a well-defined 
center, but southeasterly shear has kept convection mainly confined 
in the north and west quadrants of Amanda. Objective and subjective 
Dvorak estimates depict an intensity around 35 kt, so the initial 
intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. 
 
Amanda is moving toward the northwest at around 8 kt. An upper-level 
ridge building northeast of the tropical storm will support a 
west-northwestward motion over the next 12-24 h. A turn toward the 
west then southwest is forecast over this weekend as weak ridging 
builds to the northwest of Amanda. The official NHC forecast has 
been shifted slightly farther south, and falls between the Google 
DeepMind and various consensus aids. 

East-southeasterly vertical wind shear and modest mid-level moisture 
have led to pulsing convection to the north and west of the center 
of Amanda. Some intensification is still possible over the next 
12-24 h as the storm remains in a semi-favorable environment. 
However, after 24 h, the storm will encounter increasing vertical 
wind shear, drier mid-level air and upper-level convergence, leading 
to steady weakening. The official forecast calls for Amanda to 
weaken to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 h, but it may struggle 
to produce organized convection even before that time. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 12.5N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.0N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 13.3N 132.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 13.3N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 13.0N 134.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 12.6N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 12.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 11.7N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z 11.3N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams