Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


716 
WTNT45 KNHC 252038
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone
no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore
Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.  However, wind
gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island
during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites.
Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated
to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and
since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment
of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely.
The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus.

The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip,
or 070/10 kt.  A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is
forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of
mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the
northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before
dissipating.

This is the last advisory on Jerry.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 32.2N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 32.8N  63.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 33.7N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 34.7N  59.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z 35.0N  56.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch