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Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Forecast Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 290836

Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023

During the past 18 to 24 hours, Tammy has only been maintaining a
small and disorganized patch of deep convection well to the
northeast of the fully exposed center.  Accordingly, the Dvorak
classifications have been decreasing, and the latest estimate from
TAFB is a T1.0/2.0.  Satellite images also show that the low-level
center has become elongated and is losing definition.  Based on
these characteristics, Tammy no longer qualifies as a tropical
cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

Tammy is moving eastward at 16 kt in the mid-latitude westerlies. A 
fairly sharp turn to the south is expected to occur tonight followed 
by a motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday as the 
post-tropical cyclone moves around the east side of a building 
subtropical ridge.  Tammy is expected to slowly weaken due to 
continued strong vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, and it 
will likely dissipate in a few days.

Additional and future information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at


INIT  29/0900Z 32.4N  53.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/1800Z 31.6N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 30.1N  47.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 28.5N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 27.2N  46.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/1800Z 26.1N  48.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi