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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion


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560 
WTNT45 KNHC 060845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard is comprised of an exposed 
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a strong cluster of 
convection over the northeastern quadrant.  Various subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the 
initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt.  Due to 
the rapid motion, it is possible that the system no longer has a 
closed circulation.  However, there is not enough evidence of this 
to justify stopping advisories at this time.

The initial motion is quickly northeastward or 055/31.  Edouard is 
embedded in strong southwesterly mid-latitude flow, and a fast 
motion toward the northeast should continue until the cyclone 
dissipates.  The new track forecast is little changed from the 
previous forecast, and it lies near the center of the tightly 
clustered model guidance.

The cyclone is located in a region of strong southwesterly vertical 
wind shear, is heading for colder water, and is approaching a 
frontal system.  This combination should lead to extratropical 
transition between 12-24 h, and it is possible that Edouard could 
strengthen a little as transition occurs.  After transition, the 
extratropical low should persist for another 24 h or so before the 
circulation dissipates.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged 
from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 39.0N  53.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 41.3N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 44.7N  41.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/1800Z 48.0N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0600Z 51.6N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven