785
WTNT44 KNHC 171437
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023
Margot has lacked organized deep convection since around 00 UTC and
is no longer a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC
advisory.
The latest Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is the basis
for the 35 kt initial intensity. Regeneration in the short term is
not expected due to high wind shear and dry surrounding air. With no
deep convection, the cyclone's winds should gradually decrease over
the next day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn
slowly northward today and tonight, and then turn eastward by
Tuesday in the wake of Post-Tropical Lee, which will be passing well
to the north. While Margot's maximum winds could fluctuate slightly
during this time, it could also open into a trough as early as
Tuesday. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should meander west
of the Azores for a day or two until it ultimately dissipates
southeast of Nigel late this week.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 34.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky