000
WTNT44 KNHC 280833
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
500 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026
 
There has been little change with Dolly overnight. The storm is 
producing a small area of deep convection near and to the northeast 
of the center, but dry air is entraining into the southern half of 
the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in 
agreement with last night's ASCAT data and the latest satellite 
estimates. Satellite images also suggest that the low-level 
circulation could be losing some definition.
 
The storm is moving rapidly westward at about 21 kt, and that motion
is expected to continue as it remains located to the south of a
strong subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies on the
fast side of the guidance, as most of the models often have a
slow bias for weak systems in this region.
 
The combination of increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry 
air, and Dolly's fast forward speed should limit any notable 
intensification. In fact, all of the reliable models show the storm 
gradually losing strength and degenerating into a trough of low 
pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend. 
Post-tropical positions are provided from 36-60 h given the risk of 
gusty winds and heavy rainfall, however, it seems unlikely that 
Dolly will have a closed circulation at those times.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 14.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 15.1N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 15.9N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 16.6N  57.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  30/0600Z 17.2N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1800Z 18.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi