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Remnants of Isaac Forecast Discussion


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559 
WTNT44 KNHC 150841
TCDAT4

Remnants Of Isaac Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Isaac over the past
few hours and was unable to identify a well-defined center. The
plane found multiple small and poorly-defined circulations embedded
within a larger area of weak and variable winds, well to the south
of the previous estimated center location. The plane also found that
the minimum pressure has risen to around 1006 mb. All of this data
confirmed what two late-arriving ASCAT overpasses from earlier this
evening indicated, that Isaac has opened up into a southwest to
northeast oriented trough. Since Isaac does not have a well-defined
center, it no longer meets the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone
and this is the last advisory.

The strongest SFMR winds found by the plane were around 30 kt,
mainly to the north of the deep convection, so the intensity has
been set at that value.  Although some of the regional hurricane
models suggest that small short-lived circulations like the ones
found by the plane could temporarily spin up within the larger
envelope of the tropical wave over the next several days, none of
the dynamical models currently show any significant redevelopment of
Isaac. The wave will likely continue westward across the Caribbean
Sea over the next few days, producing gusty winds and occasional
heavy rains over portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Isaac. Additional information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available online at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 14.8N  70.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky