851 
WTNT43 KNHC 130233
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
300 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026

Cool sea-surface temperatures and north-northwesterly shear are 
taking their toll on Cristobal.  Satellite images show that the 
cyclone has become completely devoid of deep convection.  The latest 
intensity estimates from TAFB, as well as the latest DPRINT and 
DMINT estimates, are near 30 kt, although some of the other 
objective estimates were still a bit higher.  The initial intensity 
is brought down to 35 kt for this advisory, as a compromise of the 
data.

Based on the increasingly harsh environmental conditions that the 
storm is entering as well as the latest model guidance, Cristobal is 
expected to continue weakening, and it is unlikely that convection 
will make a comeback.  Therefore, the NHC forecast now calls for 
Cristobal to become a remnant low within the next 12 h.  

The current motion estimate is east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt. 
The cyclone is expected to turn a bit more northeastward over the 
next 12 h, and very little change has been made to the previous NHC 
track prediction.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 37.7N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 38.7N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen