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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 191450
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Wilfred still consists of a very small low-level circulation
embedded within an elongated area of low pressure. There has been a
bit of an increase in deep convection near/over the estimated center
during the past few hours, and the intensity remains 35 kt based on
the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS
SATCON.

Wilfred will be moving over SSTs of around 28C but will experience a
gradual increase in westerly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours as
an upper-level trough amplifies to the northwest, and this should
result in little change in strength during that time. Beyond that
time, the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable airmass, which
should result in the system becoming a remnant low and dissipating
in 60 to 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the
latest IVCN consensus.

The initial motion estimate based on the latest satellite fixes
is 285/12. Wilfred should continue moving generally west-
northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more
westward by 48 h as it becomes a shallower system. The new NHC
track forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has
been adjusted farther south at 36 h and beyond, trending toward
the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 13.4N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 14.2N  40.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 15.2N  43.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 15.9N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 16.2N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 16.3N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan