358 
WTNT43 KNHC 050235
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, 
with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the 
deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly 
shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level 
center.  The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with 
data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite 
trends.  
 
The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term 
motion is basically stationary.  A slow north-northwestward motion 
is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on 
the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the 
northeastern Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered 
to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed 
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion 
should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina 
Sunday morning.  The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, 
consistent with the latest guidance.

The global models generally indicate that the current shear should 
lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in 
combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  There is 
plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit 
significant development, as well as the current disheveled 
structure.  The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening 
as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows 
suit, near the latest model consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash 
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday 
through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur 
within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the 
Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern 
Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 30.6N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 30.9N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 31.7N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 32.9N  79.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0000Z 34.2N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 35.5N  78.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake