000
WTNT43 KNHC 121451
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
300 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure we have 
been monitoring well east-northeast of Bermuda over the past several 
days has become better defined today. A recent ASCAT pass revealed 
an area of 35-40 kt winds southeast of the slightly elongated and 
exposed center, within the region of convection. While the 
convective organization has degraded since earlier this morning, 
scatterometer data indicate that the system has achieved tropical 
storm status, and it likely reached that threshold earlier this 
morning. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm 
Cristobal, with the initial intensity set to 40 kt. 

Cristobal is moving quickly eastward around 22 kt over marginally 
favorable sea surface temperatures near 25 C. The storm is currently 
positioned between a subtropical high to the south, and a ridge 
extending over the north-central Atlantic to the northeast. A turn 
toward the northeast, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward 
speed, is expected later today and tonight as Cristobal moves along 
the southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic ridge. Slow 
weakening is forecast during this period as the storm moves over 
progressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry 
mid-level air and stronger northerly wind shear. Cristobal is 
expected to be short-lived and dissipate on Thursday. The official 
NHC track and intensity forecasts lie near the middle of the 
consensus guidance and are closest to the HCCA solution.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 36.7N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 37.4N  40.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 38.5N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi