000
WTNT43 KNHC 281500
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082026
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Recent scatterometer data shows that the disturbance that NHC has 
been tracking over the central subtropical Atlantic has acquired a 
well-defined surface circulation and center.  Despite significant 
westerly shear the system has maintained an area of deep convection 
to the east of the center, and the scatterometer data revealed peak 
winds of 35 to 40 kt to the southeast of the center.  As a result 
of this data, the system is being upgraded to 40-kt tropical 
storm Hanna at this time.  

The shear over the tropical storm is expected to remain strong out 
of the west-northwest for the next several days, so little, if any, 
strengthening is anticipated.  In a couple of days, the shear and 
dry mid-level air are likely to cause weakening.  Simulated 
satellite imagery from the global models indicated the deep 
convection is likely to cease in about 60 hours, therefore the NHC 
forecast calls for it to become a remnant low at that time. 

Hanna is moving eastward at about 15 kt.  An eastward to 
east-southeastward motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as 
the system is embedded along the southern side of the mid-latitude 
westerlies. After that time, the westerlies lift northward and the 
steering flow will weaken, causing the system to slow down and turn 
east-northeastward. The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA and 
GDMI models which are along the southern side of the model envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 36.6N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 36.1N  47.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 34.8N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 33.9N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 33.9N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 34.4N  42.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1200Z 35.3N  40.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown