000
WTNT43 KNHC 290243
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082026
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows Hanna's convective structure remains 
highly sheared with an exposed center. The deepest convection 
remains displaced to the east of the tropical storm's center due to 
strong westerly vertical wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates 
from TAFB came in at T2.0/30 kt, slightly below objective estimates 
ranging between 35 and 50 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.
 
The initial motion continues east-southeastward at 105/12 kt. Hanna 
is embedded in the flow between a longwave trough to its northeast 
and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern 
should result in a continued east-southeastward motion over the next 
24–36 hours with a gradual slowdown in the track as the mid-latitude 
trough leaves Hanna behind. Much of the track guidance then shows a 
slow east-northeastward motion after the cyclone becomes vertically 
shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered south of the 
Azores. The updated NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous 
advisory and the corrected consensus (HCCA) aid, nudging the track 
slightly southward.

Hanna is expected to remain in a hostile environment, with moderate 
to strong vertical wind shear prevailing over the next 48–72 h. 
However, because the tropical storm is generally moving in the same 
direction as the shear vector, deeper convection well east of the 
center may allow for slight intensification, as portrayed in some 
reliable guidance. SHIPS guidance indicates that vertical wind shear 
will only increase throughout the forecast period, while mid-level 
RH values show the storm being starved of moisture, which may weaken 
the system. Hanna is expected to be devoid of deep convection around 
the 60 h mark, degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone at that 
time.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 36.0N  47.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 34.9N  45.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 34.1N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 34.0N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 34.4N  42.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 35.2N  40.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z 36.3N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart