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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 222032
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Deep convection has increased in association with the small low
pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas.  Animation
of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a
closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories
are being initiated on the system.  Conventional surface
observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that
the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The
system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening,
as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service
Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700
mb level.  The global models do not intensify the system, and only a
slight increase in strength appears likely.  In 36 to 48 hours, the
models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal
trough near the U.S. east coast.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt.  Over the
next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the
depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and
the southeastern United States until dissipation.  The official
track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that
were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted
fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 25.6N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 27.2N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 33.7N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch