000
WTNT43 KNHC 122035
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
900 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Cristobal has continued to degrade 
today. Approximately 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is 
displacing the slowly diminishing convection to the south and east 
of the now completely exposed center. Objective and subjective 
intensity estimates span a wide range, from 27-47 kt. The initial 
intensity of 40 kt is maintained for this advisory, placing some 
weight on the earlier ASCAT data.
 
Cristobal is moving eastward at around 090/18 kt, steered by a ridge 
over the north-central Atlantic to the northeast of the storm and a 
subtropical ridge to the south. The cyclone is expected to turn 
northeastward and gradually slow down tonight into Thursday as it 
moves along the southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic 
ridge. Cristobal will move over progressively cooler waters while 
encountering drier mid-level air and strong northerly wind shear. 
These increasingly hostile environmental conditions should result in 
slow, steady weakening over the next day or so, with dissipation 
expected Thursday night or Friday morning. The official NHC track 
and intensity forecasts remain near the middle of the consensus 
guidance and are closest to the HCCA solution.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 37.2N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 37.8N  38.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 39.6N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Pasch