958 
WTNT42 KNHC 250842
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026
800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Gonzalo remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with wind shear 
displacing the deep convection over the eastern and southern 
portions of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and 
UW-CIMSS are around 35-40 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data 
depicting 40 kt and a steady satellite appearance, the initial 
intensity for this advisory is held at 40 kt.
 
The initial motion remains north-northwestward at 340/8 kt. The 
storm is expected to continue moving north-northwestward during the 
next couple of days, steered by the flow of a deep mid-level trough 
over the eastern Atlantic. As the trough lifts northwestward later 
in the forecast period, the steering currents will become very weak, 
and Gonzalo is forecast to slow down and meander over the eastern 
Atlantic. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. The official 
NHC track forecast is lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and 
GDMI aids.
 
Gonzalo has about 12 to 18 hours within a marginally conducive 
environment for some strengthening, with sea surface temperatures 
near 27-28 deg C. After that time, vertical wind shear is forecast 
to increase, becoming fairly strong by day 2. Along the forecast 
track, sea surface temperatures will also cool, and mid-level 
relative humidity values will begin to drop into the 50, and then 
40 percent range. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory. Global model-simulated infrared satellite imagery 
depicts Gonzalo becoming devoid of deep convection in about 2 to 3 
days. Thus, the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical 
remnant low at that time, and it is expected to remain a remnant low 
through day 5.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect, today and will continue through tonight.
 
2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo
Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to
Senegal today through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be
possible along the western coast of Africa with some isolated flash
flood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 14.2N  22.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 15.4N  22.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 17.0N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 18.5N  23.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 19.8N  24.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 20.5N  24.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z 21.0N  24.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 22.2N  25.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly