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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion


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935 
WTNT42 KNHC 210852
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during
the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image
indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin
at the time.  Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's
intensity is therefore set at 75 kt.  By definition, Epsilon has
rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt
during the past 24 hours.

As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge
which has built to the north of the hurricane.  This ridge is
expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of
Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone
back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.
Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north
Atlantic by the end of the forecast period.  The GFS and HWRF
models are showing some deviation to the east and west,
respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the
expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda.  However, given that
that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track
prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model
consensus aids.

Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional
strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected 
to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much
intensification can occur.  During the first few days, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and
IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models.  This
forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows
little change in strength for the next 3 days.  Some gradual
weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a
cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be
a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end
of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island as a hurricane.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 28.9N  58.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 29.5N  59.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 30.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 31.8N  61.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 33.1N  61.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 34.3N  61.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 35.8N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 40.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 46.0N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg