000
WTNT42 KNHC 201448
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the 
depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level 
circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding 
near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this 
has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb 
flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and 
the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the 
initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the 
south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is 
310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning 
from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched 
between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over 
the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. 
Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the 
dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the 
northeastern United States. This should result in the depression 
turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued 
slow forward speed.  The new forecast track brings the center near 
southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern 
Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the 
previous track based partly on the current position and the 
possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the 
center a little more southward.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and 
these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely 
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center 
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a 
tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is 
forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get 
strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. 
This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The 
new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to 
48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance 
envelope.  The forecast also calls for the system to survive 
through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h, 
especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more 
land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give 
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the 
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the 
center.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from 
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning 
late tonight into Tuesday. 

2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, 
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm 
surge is possible.
 
3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area later today or Tuesday.
 
4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along 
the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to 
the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, 
Mississippi, and Louisiana.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 28.5N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 28.6N  86.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 28.9N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 29.2N  87.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 29.4N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 29.5N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 29.5N  90.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  24/1200Z 29.4N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  25/1200Z 29.3N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Beven