000
WTNT42 KNHC 221452
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
 
Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this 
morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been 
pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to 
strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
central pressure has changed very little from the previous 
advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level 
wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial 
intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds 
may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in 
anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the 
next few hours.
 
Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast 
track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model 
guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today, 
but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior 
for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion 
resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of 
Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by 
Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the 
northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the 
recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically 
reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance.

The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and 
the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose 
intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will 
spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with 
strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains 
Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the 
time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that 
the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that 
time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a 
blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast 
point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but 
Bertha could have dissipated by that time.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area,
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions
of the southwestern coast of Louisiana and upper Texas coast 
tonight through late Thursday.
 
2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.
 
3. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through Friday 
morning along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest 
Florida to southern Texas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 29.8N  88.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 29.6N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/1200Z 29.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  24/0000Z 29.4N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 29.0N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg