000
WTNT42 KNHC 230248
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
 
After making landfall in southeastern Louisiana earlier today,
Surface observations show that the center has become less well
defined.  It appears, however, that the center has slipped a little
southwestward and close to the coast of south Louisiana.  Most of 
the deep convection continues to be south and southwest of the 
center, out over the northern Gulf, due to the persistent 
north-northeasterly vertical wind shear.  The overall cloud pattern 
is not very well organized, and is elongated from southwest to 
northeast.  The intensity estimate is held at 40 kt for this 
advisory, with these winds occurring primarily over the Gulf waters.

Bertha has been moving a little south of west over the past several 
hours, with the initial motion a faster 260/10 kt.  The main 
steering mechanism continues to be a large and strong 
mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the south-central United States.  
Bertha should move along the southern periphery of this high 
pressure area for the next day or two, and is expected to briefly 
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf waters on Thursday. The system 
should cross the upper Texas coast later on Thursday and move 
inland over Texas after that.  The official forecast track is just 
slightly south of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the 
more southern location of the center, and is close to the latest 
corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Since the storm should remain in a dry mid-level air mass with 
continued strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear through 
Thursday, significant re-strengthening over the northwestern Gulf 
waters is unlikely.  The official intensity forecast is on the high 
side of the model guidance, close to the SHIPS prediction.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to southwestern Louisiana,
including the Metro New Orleans area, tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the upper 
Texas coast on Thursday.
 
2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.
 
3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast 
and South Texas through Thursday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 29.4N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 29.2N  92.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 29.1N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 29.0N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch