000
WTNT42 KNHC 251445
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Gonzalo remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the deep convection 
located northeast of the elongated center.  ASCAT data from around 
1100 UTC revealed a large area of tropical-storm force winds 
located over the northeastern portion of the circulation with peak 
winds of around 45 kt.  Those peak winds were the basis for 
increasing the intensity to 45 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate 
advisory, and the initial intensity for this advisory remains 
unchanged.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/9 kt. A 
mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is expected to steer 
Gonzalo north-northwestward to northward today with the center 
passing near or over the easternmost Cabo Verde Islands. A 
north-northwestward heading should then continue over the weekend 
with some reduction in forward speed as the system weakens and 
becomes more vertically shallow.  The updated NHC track forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP 
corrected consensus aid. 

Little change in strength is expected today as Gonzalo passes near 
or over the Cabo Verde Islands.  The shear is forecast to increase 
to more than 30 kt later tonight and become even more belligerent 
over the weekend.  This should cause weakening to begin by Saturday 
morning with a continued gradual spin down through the weekend.  As 
the SSTs cool along the track and strong shear continues, the 
system is likely to lose organized deep convection by late Sunday 
or Sunday night and become post-tropical. The NHC intensity 
forecast is close to a blend of the Google Deep Mind and HFIP 
corrected consensus aids. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the 
Cabo Verde Islands into tonight. 
 
2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern portions of 
the Cabo Verde Islands and the western coast of Africa between 
Guinea-Bissau to Senegal through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding 
will be possible along the Africa coasts with some isolated flash 
flood concerns for the eastern portions of Cabo Verde. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 15.1N  22.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 16.5N  22.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.1N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.3N  23.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N  24.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 20.8N  24.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 21.3N  25.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 21.8N  25.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 22.2N  25.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown