000
WTNT42 KNHC 200850
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The tropical depression continues to have a fairly unimpressive 
appearance on satellite imagery, with just a few fragments of deep 
convection around the circulation center. An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the system this morning, 
finding that the pressure continues to gradually decrease with a 
peak 925 mb flight level wind of 38 kt. This data is the primary 
justification for increasing the winds slightly to 30 kt for this 
advisory. 

Recon fixes indicate that the depression is now moving slowly 
northwestward at 320/3 kt. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched 
between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the 
Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over 
time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant 
steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern 
United States. The byproduct of this change is that the system 
should begin to gradually turn more west-northwestward and westward 
by the middle of this week. This track should bring the cyclone near 
or along the Gulf coast, approaching the mouth of the Mississippi 
River by 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a 
little northward over these first few days, and the NHC track 
forecast was also shifted in that direction, blending the simple 
consensus aid TVCN with the Google DeepMind (GDMI) track guidance.  

As mentioned previously, the depression's broad structure and 
mid-level dry air are keeping the convection limited. Thus, its 
intensification continues to be gradual. The depression is forecast 
to become a tropical storm later today and continue to slowly 
intensify while the shear remains low to moderate. After 36 h, 
northeasterly shear is expected to increase markedly, and the 
guidance is coming into better agreement that this should halt 
additional intensification after that time. With the northward shift 
in the track, the tropical cyclone is more likely to be disrupted by 
land interaction beyond 60 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast 
now shows gradual weakening afterwards. This intensity forecast 
still remains sensitive to the ultimate track, though it is notable 
that the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean only tracks the 
cyclone out to 72 h, suggesting the majority of its members 
dissipate the system beyond that period. The NHC intensity forecast 
is a little lower than the previous cycle after 72 h, but it 
wouldn't be surprising if future adjustments are needed if more 
guidance trends towards a further inland solution.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could 
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle 
and Alabama coast beginning tonight into Tuesday, where a Tropical 
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
2. Interests in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the 
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for 
portions of that area over the next day or two.
 
3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the 
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the 
Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, 
Mississippi, and Louisiana.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 28.5N  85.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 28.7N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 29.0N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 29.3N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 29.6N  87.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 29.8N  89.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 29.7N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  24/0600Z 29.6N  93.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  25/0600Z 29.5N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Papin