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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 252036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020

Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer 
data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the 
cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low pressure system and an 
associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason 
that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is
persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation. 
Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of 
56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt.

What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the
cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next
few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C
and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation.
The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is
absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic
in about 24-36 h.

Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded 
within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or 
northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets 
absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system. 
The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the 
previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered 
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 46.2N  44.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 49.4N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1800Z 54.4N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto