934 
WTNT42 KNHC 200245
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The depression is producing a small area of deep convection near 
and north of the apparent center, with other modest bands mostly in 
the eastern semicircle.  Since the various satellite intensity 
estimates are unchanged and the nearby surface observations haven't 
reported much more than 20 kt, the initial intensity will remain 
25 kt for this advisory.  This is also consistent with a 
just-received partial scatterometer pass.

The system is drifting to the north-northwest, caught in light 
steering between a ridge over the western Atlantic and one over the 
south-central United States.  Most of the guidance suggests that 
this slow motion, with some turn to the west-northwest, will 
continue early this week, and the cyclone's outer bands could bring 
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle 
beginning late Monday.  A turn to the west and an increase in 
forward speed are forecast late on Tuesday as the ridge over the 
U.S. builds eastward, causing the system to move along or just 
offshore of the northwestern Gulf coast during the middle and latter 
portions of the week.  The track has been shifted a bit to the north 
in the short-term, blending back with the previous forecast on day 
2, then a bit to the south at long-term.  This is consistent with 
the latest model consensus and Google DeepMind solutions.

Only slow strengthening of the system is expected due to its broad 
structure, pockets of mid-level dry air, and northeasterly vertical 
wind shear, despite very warm waters.  The cyclone is still 
forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of 
the Florida Panhandle.  An increase in shear is expected by 
Tuesday, which could cause the intensity to flat line, along with 
some land interaction.  This is a challenging forecast because of 
the expected moderate shear conditions, which are known to result 
in less predictable outcomes. For instance, reliable models are 
spread from near dissipation by the ECMWF/HAFS guidance but near 
hurricane-strength in the latest HWRF/HMON runs.  The NHC forecast 
continues to lie between those solutions, but it should be mentioned 
that I don't have much confidence in this prediction given the above 
factors.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.
 
2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required
for portions of that area over the next day or two.
 
3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 28.0N  85.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 28.3N  85.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 28.6N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 28.8N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 29.1N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 29.3N  88.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 29.2N  89.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 29.0N  93.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 28.8N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Blake