000
WTNT41 KNHC 280236
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Little can be said about Fay that hasn't been said already across 
previous advisories. The storm continues to undergo rounds of 
diurnal, pulsating convection, allowing for it to remain a tropical 
depression despite being disorganized and weak. Scatterometry data 
from around 2300 UTC also confirms that a closed, albeit weak, 
circulation persists. With max winds from this scatterometry pass 
reading around 20 kt, the initial intensity for Fay was set at 25 
kt.
 
The initial motion was set at 190/5 kt. Fay is beginning to pick up 
speed as it escapes the influence of the subtropical Atlantic high 
and is carried more by the prevailing easterlies. A brief 
southeastward shift was evident on satellite just a few hours ago, 
but now Fay is beginning its forecasted southwestward to 
west-southwestward turn. The only notable change in the latest 
track forecast was to increase Fay's forward speed during the 
latter half of the forecast period, to fall better in line with the
HCCA guidance.

Global models continue to suggest that Fay will degenerate into 
a trough during the middle of the week, with post-tropical 
transition occuring just before. Fluctuations in Fay's intensity 
are expected so long as these diurnal cycles of convection 
continue, however with now two consecutive scatterometry passes 
depicting Fay's max winds at around 21 kt, the intensity forecast 
was left at 25 kt throughout the period, with little in the 
guidance and synoptic environment to suggest that Fay will 
strengthen meaningfully beyond that before finally dissipating. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 28.5N  43.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 27.6N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 26.3N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 25.2N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 24.5N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1200Z 24.3N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi