000
WTNT41 KNHC 280848
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fay's convection has persisted a bit longer overnight than 
previously seen the last couple of days. Dvorak intensity estimates 
appear to have picked up on this, with TAFB providing a subjective 
estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Based primarily on Fay's satellite 
presentation since the last advisory, the initial intensity was 
raised slightly to 30 kt, but Fay remains a tropical depression.

The forecast increase in forward speed, as well as a turn to the 
southwest, is becoming more evident on satellite imagery. For this 
advisory, the initial motion is set at 210/6 kt. Track guidance 
remains in fairly good agreement on Fay tracking to the southwest 
and then west-southwest as it is steered by the prevailing 
easterlies along the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical 
high. The greatest uncertainty across the guidance is the forward 
speed of the depression. The latest track forecast shows a faster 
forward speed over the next 48 h, in close agreement with the HCCA 
guidance.

So long as organized deep convection persists and scatterometry 
data depicts a closed low, Fay will remain a tropical depression. 
Even as SHIPS guidance shows Fay entering a favorable environment 
in terms of SSTs, vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture, the 
current forecast thinking is that Fay's presence under mid- to 
upper-level ridging will drive convergence aloft and weaken its 
circulation to the point of dissipation. Global models agree on this 
and have Fay ultimately dissipating during the day Wednesday, with 
the exception of the UKMET, which holds onto the cyclone 
through the end of the week. The latest intensity forecast shows 
Fay becoming post-tropical late Tuesday, with dissipation a day or 
two later.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 27.9N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 27.0N  44.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 25.5N  46.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 24.4N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 23.2N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen/Mahoney