000
WTNT41 KNHC 201456
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
 
Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the
last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass
that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties 
due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been 
raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with 
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 
n mi.

Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions 
with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to 
further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough 
lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead 
to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast 
calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and 
then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity 
forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short 
term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and 
the expected baroclinic support from the trough.  This small system 
could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. 

Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion 
estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for 
the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected 
to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay 
to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction 
over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track 
forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few 
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and 
GDMI. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 34.1N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.3N  32.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 33.9N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 32.9N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 31.7N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 30.6N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 29.8N  37.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 28.8N  41.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch