000
WTNT41 KNHC 220233
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear 
tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east 
of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor 
imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent 
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased 
over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the 
degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. 
 
The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the 
southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of 
the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west 
is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and 
expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close 
to the HCCA solution. 

Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air 
wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite 
imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to 
maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system 
could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong 
upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over 
the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or 
so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the 
coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow 
convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence 
is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable 
environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows 
Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 32.3N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 31.6N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 30.7N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z 30.1N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 29.7N  39.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1200Z 29.5N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 29.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z 29.5N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams