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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion


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345 
WTNT41 KNHC 221432
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

It appears that the depression's best day is behind it, as the
cloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level
center is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud
tops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to
the east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by
UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
consistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the
strong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be
moving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should
gradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and
dissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either
or both of these occurred sooner.

The center of the depression hasn't moved much during the past few
hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The
weakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward
by a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the
previous one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system
will gain prior to dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 13.2N  53.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 13.6N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 14.0N  55.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 14.4N  56.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan