861 
WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
500 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Fay has continued to produce bursts of deep convection this 
afternoon, primarily sheared to the south of the low-level center. 
The overall satellite presentation has improved slightly since 
earlier today, featuring cold cloud tops near -70C. Objective 
UW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimates have been running slightly 
higher than the scatterometer-derived surface wind data from earlier 
today. However, the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB 
has held steady at T2.0/30 kt. Accordingly, the initial intensity is 
maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The depression is moving southwestward with an estimated initial 
motion of 220/8 kt. A general southwest to west-southwest motion is 
anticipated over the next couple of days as Fay is steered by the 
flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over 
the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially 
an update of the previous advisory and lies very close to the HCCA 
corrected-consensus aid.
 
Fay continues to defy model guidance by maintaining deep convection 
near its low-level center. Given that vertical wind shear remains 
low-to-moderate and sea surface temperatures are near 29C, it is 
entirely possible that Fay could briefly regain tropical storm 
strength tonight. Global models persist in showing that the system 
will struggle to sustain deep convection in a day or so as it 
encounters a more stable air mass and upper-level convergence. 
Nevertheless, Fay has proven to be a resilient, small system. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast holds Fay steady through Tuesday 
followed by gradual weakening, with the system forecast to become a 
post-tropical cyclone in a day or so, and degenerate into a remnant 
trough in a couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 26.6N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 25.6N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 24.4N  48.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 23.4N  50.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 22.8N  52.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly