000
WTNT41 KNHC 290236
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
The convection around Fay continues to improve during the evening
hours, but is still a bit sheared to the south of the low-level
center. A few cloud tops near -70 C persist, with the objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS in the range of 34-43 kt.
However, the latest TAFB Dvorak fix was a T2.0/30 kt. Based on the
given data, the intensity has been risen to 35 kt for this
advisory, which makes Fay a tropical storm again.
 
The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated 
initial motion of 225/8 kt. This general southwest to west-southwest 
motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days as Fay is 
guided by the flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level 
ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The current NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous one with just a few minor 
adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

The intensity of the cyclone is likely to continue to fluctuate 
for the next couple of days as convection continues to pulsate, but 
that convection will likely be sheared away from the center since 
SHIPS guidance indicates increasing shear over the next day or so. 
The global models still show that Fay will struggle to maintain 
deep convection once it moves into a more stable air mass and an 
area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity forecast 
only shows minor changes in intensity with Fay becoming a
post-tropical cyclone in a day or so, then degenerate into a trough 
in a few days.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 26.0N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 25.1N  47.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 23.9N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 23.1N  51.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z 22.8N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen